http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2010/0608/1224272053268.html

OUTGOING UN climate chief Yvo de Boerhas scotched the prospects of effective action being taken by both developedand major developing countries to combat global warming for at least 10 years.

“I don’t see the process deliveringadequate mitigation targets [to reduce greenhouse gas emissions] in the nextdecade,” he told a press briefing yesterday during the latest round of climatetalks here.

At last December’s Copenhagen summit,world leaders pledged to limit the rise in average global surface temperaturesto 2 degrees Celsius. However, if this is to be achieved, global emissionswould have to peak in 2015.

While conceding that this would notnow happen, Mr de Boer was more confident that a target of making emissionscuts of 60 per cent or more by 2050 was attainable – although this would be a“longer journey”.

He based his assessment on the finalround of talks that led to the Copenhagen Accord when he found that alldeveloped country leaders favoured the mid-century goal, with those from thedeveloping world prepared to play their part.

However, everything that’s now on thetable as part of pledges from developed countries and others would only reduceemissions by 13 to 14 per cent below 1990 levels. “We need to move beyond it,and I’m confident we will get there in the longer run,” he said.

Asked whether next December’s summitin the Mexican resort of Cancún should be postponed until the US adopts newclimate change legislation, Mr de Boer suggested that this could mean “waitinguntil 2999 – and we won’t be around then”.

He said last December’s “prettyhorrible conference” in Copenhagen “did a lot of damage to confidence in thenegotiating process”, and this needed to be rebuilt – primarily by reachingagreement on a package of aid for developing countries. The Copenhagen Accordspecified a figure of $30 billion (€25 billion) between now and 2012 in aid tohelp them adapt to the effects of climate change. But they insist this must be“new and additional” money – not “recycled” from existing aid budgets.

“There’s a lot of discussion on thatin Bonn,” said Mr de Boer, who steps down next month as executive secretary ofthe UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. But he felt there was a “veryconstructive atmosphere” at the talks.

Although noting that pledges made bythe EU, Japan, the US and others came “very close” to $30 billion, despite theeconomic downtown, he said: “Unfortunately in life, there is a distinctionbetween making a promise and keeping a promise.”

He said greater clarity on what theCancún summit was meant to achieve was needed. “Are we working towards a newtreaty [to replace the Kyoto Protocol, due to run out in 2012] or a set ofdecisions, or both?” he asked.

In his view, Cancún needed to producea “developed architecture” for dealing with all the key issues, includingmitigation, adaptation, finance and capacity-building, and this would requireclear leadership and greater ambition from developed countries.

Belgian physicist Jean-Pascal vanYpersele, a vice-chairman of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), said it has no view on what is necessary to mitigate global warming.All it had done was to produce different scenarios.

Following the controversies of recentmonths that called its most recent assessment (2007) into question, he said theIPCC would work very hard to restore public confidence and trust in climatescience – and in its own objectivity.

KeyaChatterjee, of the US Climate Action Network, said the economic and social costof addiction to fossil fuels was illustrated by the oil spill in the Gulf ofMexico.