In February 2011, the Australian government established an independent body, the Climate Commission, to provide unbiased scientific information to the public about climate change. Although meant primarily for Australia, the reports of the commission are now attracting global attention.
Its first report said key decisions would have to be made this decade if we are to keep climate change to manageable levels. Its second report, published in August last year, said major countries were taking action to combat climate change. The third, published this week, concluded that the US and China have accelerated their efforts to tackle climate change.
In fact, China is the global leader now in action to combat global warming. It is a dramatic change from a few years ago, when the world was accusing China of having scant regard for the environment.
Coal Warning
The Climate Commission report provides great hope for a world now reeling under droughts and floods. None of the official negotiations has worked in forcing substantial agreements from governments, but the major polluters are on track to reduce carbon dioxide emissions anyway.
China has reduced its carbon intensity by 5% in 2012 and halved its growth in electricity demand. It invested $65.1 billion in 2012 on clean energy, and increased its solar power capacity by 75% in two years.
The US invested $35.6 billion on renewable energy in 2012, and is on target to reach its goal of reducing its emissions by 17% between 2005 and 2020. It also doubled renewable energy capacity in the last four years. Total US emissions have started declining, and China's emissions are now projected to start declining around 2025, earlier than expected.
And yet, concluded the report, a lot needs to be done to reduce global carbon emissions to zero. Amidst all this good news, we might forget that we are plucking low-hanging fruits. The report does not mention what is being planned around the world, decisions that will increase the global emissions for a long time.
The most serious problem is with coal, which is still the leading supplier of the world's energy. Over 1,000 coal-fired power plants are being planned around the world, whose combined effect - with existing plants -would be tough to deal with. A coal power plant lasts for half a century. So, to reach our goal of zero emissions by 2050, we need to stop building new coal plants while also shutting down existing ones over the next two decades. Neither seems to be a possibility at the moment.
Leaving aside massive carbon capture and storage, which still remains a fancy idea, the only way out of this situation is for solar energy to become so cheap that coal is no longer economically viable.
Solar Way
Despite the continued drop in solar electricity prices, this won't happen without technology breakthroughs that boost the efficiency of solar cells to over 50%. Current commercial solar cells work at about 20% efficiency.
There are a few candidates under development that can increase the efficiency to over 50% in a few years, if they are proven commercially. In the longer run, new materials like graphene can also produce the same effect more cheaply. And yet, solar cells will not be able to do this job without efficient grid storage. There are promising candidates here as well, none of them commercially proven yet. To tackle climate change quickly, there is no substitute to scientific research.
The world relies on the US far too much for new technology. Other countries would need to share the burden. India's efforts are too meagre to be worthy of a mention.