Greg Barker predicts US elections and change of leadership in China could impede progress at UN climate change negotiations
The global business community can expect to shoulder a large chunk of the $100bn a year bill that governments in industrialised countries have agreed to pay to help developing nations cope with the impacts of climate change, according to UK Climate Change Minister Greg Barker.
Speaking at an event in the House of Commons yesterday, Barker outlined his hopes for the future direction of UN climate change negotiations at a cross party meeting in the House of Commons.
The next United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) summit will take place in Doha, Qatar from 26 November to 7 December 2012.
The talks will aim to make progress on a number of fronts, including the extension of the Kyoto Protocol before it lapses at the end of the year, and the development of a roadmap for delivering a new legally-binding treaty that is scheduled to be agreed by 2015 and brought into effect from 2020.
It will also focus on working out a new roadmap for the future of the Long-term Cooperative Action (LCA) working group, which is focused on climate funding, adaptation, and technology transfer mechanisms.
Barker outlined a series of key areas where progress would be needed over the next three years, including seeing developed countries fulfil a pledge from 2010 to mobilise up to $100bn a year from 2020 to support climate change mitigation and adaptation for poorer states.
He stressed that much of that funding would need to come from the private sector, as well as state aid, and urged governments to take steps to boost business investment in developing countries' clean tech industries.
"There's some confusion here," he said. "A number of commentators or individual countries will often mistake that commitment for grant aid from developed countries to developing countries. That's not what it is."
He explained the agreement committed countries to mobilising support from the private sector as well as donating their own money. "Private sector capital is going to be a very large component of that [$100bn a year fund]," he said.
"We're not resigning from our obligation to provide public sector government cash, but private sector has to be a really significant part. We need to do a lot more to mobilise markets to make sure it's capable of delivering finance at that scale on an annual basis."
The UK has committed £2.9bn by 2014/15 under the International Climate Fund, £1.2bn of which has already been approved for projects. However, Barker said he wanted the UK to deliver more bilateral aid to help demonstrate UK's support for the $100bn a year pledge.
He also said the UK was very keen for the new Green Climate Fund to be designed in a way that mobilises private sector finance. The fund was agreed last year in Durban to help funnel some of the $100bn annual bill and a new board is currently investigating proposals for how the money will be raised and distributed, including controversial plans for a global emissions levy on shipping and aviation.
However, Barker admitted that he was sceptical about the chances of a major breakthrough at the Doha Summit given the backdrop provided by the US presidential election and the anticipated changes to the Chinese government's leadership.
Peter Betts, the EU Lead Negotiator in the UNFCCC and director of International Climate Change at the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change, agreed that potential opposition from the US could hamper negotiations.
He said the US has been signalling that it is reluctant about supporting a legally binding agreement and that it was "hard to see new public finance emerging in the short-term from other countries, particularly the US".
Barker also said the UK would be pushing for an urgent increase in efforts to tackle climate change ahead of the proposed 2020 treaty, which could include taking action to curb emissions from sectors such as aviation and shipping.
However, the minister again downplayed the chances of a major breakthrough at the COP 18 Summit, predicting the talks will instead lay the groundwork for tough decisions that could be taken in 2013.
He warned there was a risk that 2015 could become "Copenhagen revisited" if talks collapsed at any point over the next three years - referring to the 2009 summit that failed to live up to expectations that it would deliver a binding, multilateral agreement for tackling climate change.
"The 2015 deadline agreed in Durban last year means that we don't have to achieve everything in Doha this year," he said. "In fact trying to work out what we do have to agree is quite a challenge."
He added that preparatory talks in Bangkok last week had made some progress, but warned that the political climate in Doha will not be right for a "breakthrough" agreement on the most difficult issues.
However, Barker insisted it was important that negotiators use the next year to "do the groundwork" that would allow them to then agree a more detailed treaty in the run up to 2015.
He also expressed hope the location of this year's talks in Doha would encourage more Middle East countries to step up their efforts to tackle climate change, particularly given that some countries such as Saudi Arabia have traditionally been sceptical about the UNFCCC process.
"It is a a bit bizarre that COP 18 will be in the centre of oil producing states," Barker said. "But rather than meeting in an eco-friendly environment and preaching to the choir, we should be actually integrating this agenda with the mainstream of the global economy.
"We don't want to alienate people with over the top language or a shrill position. I actually see the COP at Doha to bring in countries that have previously been antagonistic to our agenda as an opportunity to make them realise that it is in their interest."