http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=149603

THE coming United Nations (UN) climate talks in Durban must deliver a mechanism to work around the Kyoto Protocol, to fill any legal vacuum left if the protocol's first commitment period expired before a second was in place, Water and Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa said on Friday.

The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, started international collaboration on the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. But its first commitment period ends on December 31 next year and there is a near-stalemate on what commitments developed and developing countries should make on climate change mitigation after next year .

Ms Molewa said Africa, often cited as the continent that would be worst affected by climate change, needed to stand united during the climate talks. The effect of climate change on the continent included predictions that coastal flooding due to rising sea levels would wipe out 30% of Africa's coastal infrastructure, said Ms Molewa, who was speaking at a UN Development Programme event in Johannesburg.

A recent African Union meeting in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, observed that the coming talks were going to take place in a "tight" negotiating climate.

This meant that a legally binding agreement on future climate change mitigation commitments was impossible, Ms Molewa said.

Even so, the Durban talks needed to mark a decisive step towards a fair global climate change mitigation regime, she said.

The world has jettisoned hope of securing a second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol - the world's first and only agreement on international collaboration in stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations - at Durban. Last month, UN climate-change official Christiana Figueres said there was not enough time left to approve the text for a second commitment.

What Durban should deliver was a "mechanism to work around the Kyoto Protocol so that no legal vacuum is left (if the protocol's first commitment period expires without a second in place)", said Ms Molewa. "It is possible some parties will not be able to come on board, but even so we need to restore and preserve the (agreement) architecture.

"We are not shying away (from negotiating a binding agreement), we are facing reality," she said.

The tight negotiating climate was due to coming elections in some countries, especially the US; and the euro zone's financial crisis, as well as the effects of the massive earthquake that disrupted the Japanese economy at the beginning of the year, Ms Molewa said.

The UN estimates that sea levels on the coast of Africa could rise by between 15cm and 95cm by 2100, putting 70-million people at risk of flooding by 2080 (from 1-million in 1990) and damage or destroy coastal infrastructure, including coastal settlements in the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia and Egypt.

Ms Molewa said the South African government's final negotiating mandate for December's 17th UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP17) would go to the Cabinet in October.

Civil Society Committee for COP17 member Melita Steele said the "only honest answer" to what would make the Durban climate talks a success was "a binding deal" limiting global warming to as close to 1,5°C as possible.

Many scientists agree there will be damaging climate change if global average temperatures increase by 2°C from pre-industrial revolution average temperatures.