http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/21/climate-action-tracker-world-on-course-for-3-7c-warming-by-2100/

 

Weak government action on climate change will lead to a projected 3.7°C of warming by 2100, around 0.6°C higher than the original promises made in Copenhagen, says a new report

 

The annual assessment by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), produced by Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows that the world has a one in three chance of exceeding 4˚C by 2100.

Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics said: "We are seeing a major risk of a further downward spiral in ambition, a retreat from action, and a re-carbonisation of the energy system led by the use of coal.

"Governments are taking a 'bottom up' approach to climate action, unilaterally degrading their pledges without review: the type of pledge first, review later approach to commitments that could lead to a very weak agreement in 2015."

Since the Warsaw talks began, the announcement by Japan to downgrade its target will see the global 2020 emissions gap increase by 3-4%, according to the assessment.

Australia's backtracking on implementation could widen the gap further, although there are some positive signals coming from the US and China.

These developments point towards warming of about 5°C, under the highest of the new IPCC scenarios that sees a six-fold increase in coal use.

The assessment says: "There is a growing disconnect between current policies and 2020 pledges, and the longer-term reductions needed for 1.5-2°C."